IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.7	#175
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.1	#79
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.3	#159

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.0	#202

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.5%	17.6%	6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.3%	1.6%	0.2%
Average Seed	13.7	12.9	14.0

.500 or above	49.2%	77.6%	46.3%
.500 or above in Conference	60.9%	78.8%	59.2%
Conference Champion	8.7%	16.4%	8.0%
Last Place in Conference	5.8%	2.0%	6.2%

First Four	0.8%	1.0%	0.8%
First Round	7.2%	17.2%	6.2%
Second Round	1.0%	3.2%	0.8%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	1.2%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 9.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 1.2	0.1 - 1.2
Quad 1b	0.2 - 1.5	0.2 - 2.7
Quad 2	0.9 - 3.2	1.1 - 5.9
Quad 3	4.4 - 5.7	5.5 - 11.6
Quad 4	7.9 - 2.9	13.4 - 14.6

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 11, 2018	39	@ Alabama	L	68-79	9%
Nov 15, 2018	27	Purdue	L	68-81	12%
Nov 16, 2018	81	Wichita St.	L	73-80	27%
Nov 18, 2018	111	Ball St.	L	75-79	35%
Nov 30, 2018	290	@ East Carolina	W	78-72	61%
Dec 04, 2018	305	Howard	W	82-75	83%
Dec 08, 2018	302	NC Central	W	73-66	81%
Dec 15, 2018	250	@ South Florida	W	72-68	54%
Dec 18, 2018	69	@ Georgetown	L	74-83	16%
Dec 30, 2018	71	@ Saint Louis	L	65-73	17%
Jan 03, 2019	150	@ South Alabama	L	75-77	35%
Jan 05, 2019	192	@ Troy	W	76-75	43%
Jan 10, 2019	256	Texas Arlington	W	80-75	74%
Jan 12, 2019	203	Texas St.	W	69-67	65%
Jan 19, 2019	221	@ Coastal Carolina	W	75-72	49%
Jan 24, 2019	286	@ Arkansas St.	W	80-74	60%
Jan 26, 2019	264	@ Arkansas Little Rock	W	72-67	57%
Jan 31, 2019	100	Louisiana	L	75-80	44%
Feb 02, 2019	210	Louisiana Monroe	W	72-70	66%
Feb 07, 2019	203	@ Texas St.	W	69-67	45%
Feb 09, 2019	256	@ Texas Arlington	W	80-75	56%
Feb 16, 2019	221	Coastal Carolina	W	75-72	69%
Feb 21, 2019	85	Georgia St.	L	70-77	39%
Feb 23, 2019	148	Georgia Southern	L	75-77	54%
Feb 28, 2019	210	@ Louisiana Monroe	W	72-70	47%
Mar 03, 2019	100	@ Louisiana	L	75-80	26%
Mar 07, 2019	192	Troy	W	76-75	62%
Mar 09, 2019	150	South Alabama	L	75-77	54%
Projected Record						13.4 - 14.6	9.5 - 8.5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.9	2.2	2.7	1.9	0.8	0.1		8.7	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	2.2	3.6	3.0	1.1	0.1				10.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.6	2.8	4.0	2.4	0.6	0.1					10.6	3rd
4th									0.0	0.5	3.0	4.7	2.2	0.3	0.0						10.8	4th
5th									0.3	3.0	4.8	2.1	0.2								10.4	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	2.2	4.9	2.1	0.3									9.7	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	1.6	4.8	2.3	0.3	0.0									9.2	7th
8th						0.1	1.4	3.7	2.8	0.3	0.0										8.4	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	1.2	3.2	2.3	0.3	0.0											7.1	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	0.9	2.5	2.2	0.7	0.0												6.4	10th
11th		0.1	0.1	1.0	1.7	1.6	0.4	0.0													4.8	11th
12th	0.2	0.3	0.9	1.0	0.7	0.2	0.0														3.4	12th

Total	0.2	0.4	1.1	2.1	3.4	5.5	7.3	8.5	10.5	11.0	10.8	10.4	8.9	7.3	5.7	3.8	2.0	0.8	0.1			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.8		0.8	0.0
16-2	93.0%	1.9		1.5	0.4	0.0
15-3	69.7%	2.7		1.6	0.9	0.1
14-4	37.7%	2.2		0.8	1.0	0.3	0.0
13-5	12.4%	0.9		0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1
12-6	1.8%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	8.7%	8.7		4.9	2.8	0.8	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		54.8%	50.6%	4.2%	9.6		0.0	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1		8.5%
17-1	0.8%		62.4%	47.7%	14.6%	11.1						0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.0			0.3		28.0%
16-2	2.0%		37.1%	32.1%	5.1%	12.3								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.3		7.4%
15-3	3.8%		30.1%	28.6%	1.5%	12.9								0.0			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	2.7		2.2%
14-4	5.7%		20.3%	19.8%	0.5%	13.5										0.0		0.0	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0	4.6		0.6%
13-5	7.3%		12.9%	12.9%		14.0												0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.1	6.3
12-6	8.9%		10.9%	10.9%		14.3												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	7.9
11-7	10.4%		7.5%	7.5%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.1	9.7
10-8	10.8%		4.3%	4.3%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	10.4
9-9	11.0%		3.1%	3.1%		15.5															0.0	0.1	0.2	10.7
8-10	10.5%		1.8%	1.8%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.2	10.3
7-11	8.5%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																0.0	0.1	8.4
6-12	7.3%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	7.3
5-13	5.5%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	5.4
4-14	3.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.4
3-15	2.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.1
2-16	1.1%																							1.1
1-17	0.4%																							0.4
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		7.5%	7.2%	0.3%	13.7		0.0	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.8	1.5	1.7	1.5	1.2	92.5		0.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%